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NFL Predictions- 2010 Week 1
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2010 NFL Predictions- Week 1

Another NFL season is upon us and with the season comes the weekly prediction threads. Like last year I'll be mainly relying on my efficiency ratings for the teams to predict the games. The first few weeks I'll rely on the 2009 statistics, with some estimated changes based on big changes in personnel. Last year we went 166-90 SU and a terrible 126-130 ATS. Lets see how it goes this year.

SAINTS (-5.5)over Vikings - Even throwing out the stats there is one thing that has been constant since the NFL began the season on Thursdays with the defending champion opening at home- the Super Bowl champ never loses and always covers. The stats agree with that assessment as the Saints were a dominant home team last year while the Vikings were a poor road team, especially defensively. If I was a Viking fan I'd also be a bit worried about Brett Favre's up a year down a year routine as 2010 looks set to be a down season for the QB. Saints 35 Vikings 23

BILLS (+2.5) over Dolphins- This is a big test for Miami who did not play well on the road last season. They need Chad Henne to begin to play well away from home if they want to contend for the playoffs. Buffalo's defense was very strong at home last season. Bills 17 Dolphins 14

BEARS (-6.5) over Lions- Detroit was just so bad on the road last season its impossible to pick them in this game. QB Matt Stafford should improve in his second season and the offense with him, but the defense is atrocious. Chicago can compete if Jay Cutler plays smarter this season. Bears 33 Lions 14

Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS- Huge game for Houston who never gets off to a good start and would already fall behind their rivals right off the bat with a loss here. Colts were excellent away from home last season while the Texans production was inflated due to an easy schedule more than anything. This game should tell us if the balance of power is going to shift. Colts 30 Texans 20

Broncos (+2.5) over JAGUARS- This is the battle between the two big choke artists of the 2009 season. Jacksonville had no business even being in the playoff chase and probably need a complete overhaul before they can contend again. Broncos 23 Jaguars 21

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals- Yes the Patriots are thinning out and there are contractual problems all over that are threatening to break up even the healthy core of the team, but the Bengals are not a good team specifically away from home. By the time this game is over people will be saying that maybe the thought of the demise of the Patriots was premature. Patriots 31 Bengals 12

Panthers (+6.5) over GIANTS- This is a rematch of the game that really ruined the Giants 2009 season. Carolina mauled the Giants in a must win game for NY as they closed out their old stadium in embarrassing fashion. If NY does not win big it is probably a bad sign for a team that has not looked good defensively for a year and a half. The Giants offense is still strong, but Carolina plays well enough to keep these games close. Giants 27 Panthers 24

Falcons (-2.5) over STEELERS- It has to be rare to see Pittsburgh as a home dog on opening day, but they have no quarterback and they are built to rely on Ben Roethlisberger to convert in crucial spots. Atlanta was a good enough team on the road last year and would have a good chance to win with Big Ben playing. Without him they should win by enough to cover. Falcons 24 Steelers 17

Browns (+2.5) over Buccaneers- I though the point of opening week was to have intriguing matchups, not games between two of the worst in the league. I guess the NFL cant do everything right. At least one fan base will get a week to think their team turned a corner this season. Browns 20 Bucs 16

TITANS (-6.5) over Raiders- Today I heard someone call into WFAN and say he heard that people are picking Oakland to win the West. I would like to know where he heard that from. Titans came on strong to finish the 2009 season and could contend this year if RB Chris Johnson can duplicate last years monster season. Titans 28 Raiders 14

Packers (-2.5) over EAGLES- It is tough to pick against Philly at home in an opener and on paper this is a close game, but Green Bay should be just a bit better. QB Kevin Kolb is the dark horse in this one. Nobody really knows what to expect and if he does not play well panic will set in among the Philly faithful. Packers 27 Eagles 23

49'ers (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS- It would not be a shocker to see the 49ers lose this game as they are an average road squad and Seattle traditionally has a strong home field. The Seahawks have a lot of question marks on the team so I cant pick them to win, but I do believe the 49'ers hype will slow down after this game. 49'ers 20 Seahawks 17

Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS- Arizona is going to be the hardest team to gauge because they lost QB Kurt Warner and WR Anquan Boldin, both of whom were huge parts of the offense. You have to think that is going to be somewhere around a 7 point swing if things don't change elsewhere on the team, but you still have to like their chances against St. Louis. On average the Rams lost by more than 16 points a game at home. QB Sam Bradford cant change that in 2010. Cardinals 24 Rams 10

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS- Washington made the two big changes by bringing in a new coach and new QB, making them impossible to predict this year. Mike Shannahan was a great coach who failed his last two years in Denver and Donovan McNabb was a great QB who is slowly falling apart. Can they revitalize their careers together? I guess we find out Sunday night. Dallas was an underrated road team last year. Cowboys 17 Redskins 13

Ravens (+2.5) over JETS- A possible AFC Championship preview in week one could have major implications down the line. These are two very similar teams, but Baltimore has done this two years in a row while the Jets still have to probe it. NY should win, but the numbers say its tight. Jets 17 Ravens 16.

Chargers (-4.5) over CHIEFS- Im not really sure why people expect the Chiefs to magically be a good team this year. They are going to need to rely on a guy who played really well on the Patriots for a half a season to do it for 16 games for the Chiefs. I doubt that happens. San Diego has their holdout issues, but have one of the top QB's in the game and that trumps all. San Diego does open slow every year and has a habit of playing down to their opposition, but I have to think Rivers wants to prove he can do it without his star receiver. Chargers 35 Chiefs 13

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