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NFL Predictions- Week 5

Well things went slightly better last week using the new season numbers with an 11-3 record straight up but only 7-7 ATS. Season record is now at 42-20 and a lousy 30-32 against the spread. Hopefully the ATS record will get a little better over time with more data from the current season. Iíll have full efficiency ratings up next week, but for a sneak peak the top ranking offenses thus far are New Orleans, Philadelphia, San Diego, Baltimore, and Dallas. The Rams have the worst offense in the NFL, while the Raiders, Redskins, Panthers, and Bucs round out the bottom five. The best defensive team, even taking into account the schedule, is the Broncos followed closely by the Jets. The Saints and 49ers are the two big defensive surprises while the Colts round out the top 5. Not wanting to see their offense outdone, the Rams defense also ranks last in the NFL. The rest of the bottom 5 are the Bucs, Texans, Lions, and Titans, who have just fallen apart in 2009. No surprise that the best overall team in the NFL is the Saints. They are trending very close to the Patriots of 2007 right now, but the season is only four weeks old. Dallas was in a great position last year as well, though nowhere near this good, and then fell apart. The Colts are the only other expected top 5 team coming in at 4. Denver (2), San Francisco (3), and the Jets (5) are total shockers. The worst teams are the Rams, Bucs, Panthers, Raiders, and Redskins.

RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals- The real question here is do they cover. Without the home and away splits being factored in its very close, so Iíll side with the numbers that say Ravens since historically they are far better as a home team than road team. Either way they should win. Ravens 30 Bengals 21

BILLS (-5.5) over Browns- A close call since the Bills numbers are skewed a bit by the no-show last week, but they should cover. If they were to lose this game it would be insanity up in Buffalo. Cleveland had their chance last week and blew it. Bills 29 Browns 17

Redskins (+3.5) over PANTHERS- The Skins are the team that will kill me all year. Every week they simply flop, but at least this week they get points from a dreadful Panthers club. Unless something changes due to the bye week, the Redskins should win this game. Redskins 17 Panthers 10

LIONS (+10.5) over Steelers- The Steelers are never great on the road and seem to have a habit of letting teams stick around in games. It should be close to a cover, but lets side with the Lions here. Steelers 27 Lions 17

Cowboys (-8.5) over CHIEFS- Everyone is down on Dallas right now, but the Chiefs just do not have the firepower to keep up. Matt Cassel is looking like a bigger mistake every day. Cowboys 29 Chiefs 16

GIANTS (-13.5) over Raiders- The only thing that scares you here is that the Giants may not play Eli Manning and right now the Giants passing game is really clicking. David Carr is a complete unknown at this point. However Jamarcus Russell is a known and we know he stinks. Giants 27 Raiders 10

EAGLES (-13.5) over Buccaneers- McNabb should be back and you know he is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. With Kevin Kolb coming off huge games and Mike Vick sitting on the sidelines nothing short of a blowout will keep Donovan from hearing it from the fans. Luckily he plays the Bucs, so he should be fine. Eagles 37 Buccaneers 13

Vikings (-10.5) over RAMS- I said it before the season that the Rams are the only team with a chance to go 0-16 this year. It likely wonít happen and maybe the Vikings have a letdown this week, but this just seems like a game where the players love to put up huge stats. Favre murdered this guys last season as a Jet. Vikings 36 Rams 7

49íERS (-2.5) over Falcons- Despite the 2-1 start, Atlantaís home victories become less and less impressive when you realize who they beat. San Francisco looks to be the class of the West this season. 49ers 23 Falcons 14

Texans (+5.5) over CARDINALS- If the Cards do not do it this week you can kiss the season goodbye. They are already teetering and at some point they will have to consider pulling the plug on Kurt Warner if the season just dies. Coin toss game and nobody can figure the Texans out, but 5.5 is way too many points. Cardinals 24 Texans 21

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Patriots- No respect for Denver this week and the odds makers always give too much respect to a New England team which thus far has not lived up to the hype. Denver has shut down two offenses that look to be pretty good and will get to see if they can do the same for New England. Broncos in the upset. Broncos 16 Patriots 9

Jaguars (+0.5) over SEAHAWKS- Jacksonville is another tough one to figure out and Seattle is always a tough place to play, but all these people who thought the Hawks were back look to be wrong. Jaguars 23 Seahawks 21

Colts (-4.5) over TITANS- The Titans are a disaster and they just gave up last week. With Peyton Manning playing at an all time high level it is hard to imagine them being in this game. Titans just make too many mental errors on both sides of the ball to be competitive. Expect a lot of Vince Young to start rumors by the end of this game. Colts 30 Titans 14

Jets (-1.5) over DOLPHINS- Neither team is very good offensively, while both have good defenses. The Jets defense is right at the top of the NFL and they have more playmakers on offense than Miami which should make the difference. Jets 20 Dolphins 9