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NFL Predictions- Week 4

Another ho hum week with a 8-8 record ATS and 10-6 straight up. Yearly record is now at 31-17 and 23-25. I’m moving into just using the numbers from 2009 from this point forward.

BEARS (-10.5) over Lions- This is a tough one as one set of numbers says Bears and another set says Lions with the points. Both teams numbers are a bit skewed by their first week games so taking that into account I’ll go with the numbers that say the Bears cover. Bears 29 Lions 13

Bengals (-5.5) over BROWNS- Maybe the Bengals play down after a big win and the Browns play better with Derek Anderson taking some chances, but if the Browns continue with their same level of production this should be a blowout. Bengals 31 Browns 10

Raiders (+9.5) over TEXANS- Houston’s world is just upside down right now and they have to win this game. Numbers say it should be really close to the point where the Raiders could pull an upset. Texans 21 Raiders 20

Seahawks (+6.5) over COLTS- Similar to the Bears/Lions game one set of numbers says Colts cover and one set says they do not. Indianapolis has a habit of playing down a bit as a home favorite so well go with the Hawks and the points. Colts 20 Seahawks 16

JAGUARS (+2.5) over Titans- Jacksonville is a tough team to figure out and usually they do not play well at home, but the Titans do not look to be in a position to be a favorite right now. Flip of a coin game. Jaguars 24 Titans 23

Giants (-9.5) over CHIEFS- The Chiefs stink. The only way they win this game is if the Giants players just blow it off. Giants 31 Chiefs 14

Ravens (+2.5) over PATRIOTS- Not sure why New England is favored here, even taking into account the fact that they are the home team. Patriots should be 1-2 right now while the Ravens are clearly the best team in the AFC. Ravens win. Ravens 29 Patriots 21

REDSKINS (-6.5) over Buccaneers- A nightmarish game. Redskins are just terrible and never ever cover games at home, while the Bucs have finally benched their QB in hopes of saving their season. Last years numbers has been wrong on every game these two teams have played and I have a feeling that continues this week even using just 2009 numbers. Redskins 21 Buccaneers 13

Bills (-2.5) over DOLPHINS- Hard to imagine the Bills as a favorite on the road, but things are bleak in Miami and Chad Henne looked like he did not even belong in the NFL when he came in as relief for Pennington. If Miami doesn’t win this game they are staring 0-8 in the face. Bills need this one to keep pace with the rest of the division. Bills stay alive. Bills 23 Dolphins 16

SAINTS (-6.5) over Jets- Maybe the Jets defense can do enough to win this game, but offensively the Jets do not do enough to hang in this kind of game for 4 quarters. Expect the Saints to get huge press after this one. Saints 31 Jets 13

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Cowboys- Measuring stick game for Denver here who has put up tremendous stats but has not played anyone of merit. Dallas has a habit of wearing teams out and pulling away in the 4th quarter. This game should either be close or the Broncos in a romp. Either way they win with the points. Broncos 24 Cowboys 10

49’ERS (-9.5) over Rams- I said it before the season---if there was one team to go 0-16 this year it would be St Louis. They just have no talent. 49’ers should come out firing after the heartbreaker last week. 49’ers 27 Rams 6

Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS- Pittsburgh’s season may hinge on this game as they need to turn things around soon. They easily could be 0-3 and its hard to like them as this big of a favorite even on their home turf. San Diego is coming into their own now that they have finally put the LT era behind them and embraced this as Phillip Rivers team. Chargers upset win. Chargers 21 Steelers 17

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Packers- The Vikings are putting up big points so far and the Packers can not stop anyone defensively. Green Bay can win this game if Brett Favre goes into the shootout mode like we saw him do at times with the Jets last season and specifically against the Cowboys two years ago. If Favre tries to do too much he will get picked off 4 times. If he stays under control he’ll get his much desired victory over the Packers. Vikings