NFL Efficiency Ratings- Week 5

This is the first posting of my efficiency ratings for the 32 teams in the NFL. I plan on posting these after every 4 weeks of play. What these efficiency ratings are based on is simply how much better or worse a team is playing based on their actual opponents results. scoring efficiency tracks how much more or less a team typically scores than their opponents average points allowed while defensive efficiency tracks how many points under or over they hold the opposition over their typical points scored. Overall efficiency is a combination of both numbers. These numbers are based on the overall results of the game and no distinction is made between defensive, special teams, and offensive scores. Like the cap pages, the stats are sortable by clicking on the headers of each column.

Using the New York Jets as an example--- The Jets currently average 20.2 points a game while thier opponents typically allow 21.04 points per game. Based on those numbers the Jets score -3.99% points per game under their opponents average. That is the scoring efficiency. The Jets have given up 17.6 ppg against a schedule that scores 23.8 PPG leading to a defensive efficiency of 26.05%. By combining the two numbers we come up with the Jets usually outplaying their opponents norms by 22.06%, which is the overall efficiency of the team.

I also track home and away splits, which are usually much more telling, but Im not sure if I will post those numbers later in the season. Some teams have wild splits between home and away. Because it is so early in the season one bad game can really throw the numbers out of whack, which is why these always seem to be the least meaningful predictor for teams that have been involved in those types of games. Usually by week 9 everytyhing is balanced out.

At this early stage it is no surprise to see who makes up the top 3. Of these three squads, the Colts and BRoncos look to have a cakewalk to the playoffs. Both teams are 5-0 and the West, as expected is terrible, but it turns out the AFC South is horrible. Jacksonville ranks as the second best team at 22nd overall. Atlanta and New England are both surprises at 4 and 5. Atlanta's is likely a fluke due to the blowout win in San Francisco. Prior to that game they were a middle of the pack team. Patriots are playing much better than people give them credit for. 4 of their 5 games are against quality teams and they have done well for themselves. People are down on them because they expected the return of Brady to equal the 2007 numbers, which were ridiculously high and close to 90% on offense. But this is still a good team and arguably the best in the AFC East, which is thus far one of the better divisions in the NFL.

The Giants and Eagles look to be the class of the NFC East. Even though the Eagles got blown out in one game I would not considered their numbers skewed since they have a habit of blowing teams out and getting blown out. I'd say their numbers balance out. The Giants will likely always be around the top 5, but even last season they seem to overplay their statistics game to game. The Bengals have taken the lead in a wide open North, but will likely have problems if they play teams that are really good. Jets took a major step down after the Miami game, while Miami has put themselves back in the mix. The Vikings look to be the paper tiger of the year. They really only have one quality win, but people view them as one of the top 2 in the NFC due to Favre and the undefeated record. Their defense in particular is nowhere near the level of a top team.

The disappointments begin with the Steelers who are an average team right now. The Chargers are in their usual early season slump, but their defense is terrible. Carolina, Houston, Washington, and Tennessee all assumed to be in the playoff hunt are more or less dead in the water. Oakland and St. Louis are a special class of bad. The Raiders are playing nearly as bad as the Detroit Lions did last season when they finished 0-16. They have become a national joke. The only thing that saves them is the fact that the Rams are playing that much worse than the Lions did last year. Detroit last season finished around -60%, and actually overtyook the Rams by seasons end. These Rams are at -104%. That is obscene.

2009 NFL Efficiency Ratings, Thru week 5