Valuing the Nick Mangold Contract
For full details and correct financial information regarding the Mangold contract please refer to the article titled A Detailed Look at the Nick Mangold Contract .
The details are beginning to emerge about the Nick Mangold contract. We are hoping to have full details in the coming days, but what has been leaked so far paints a very interesting picture of the contract and a very damning picture for Darrelle Revis assuming that he continues his holdout. Based on the information that was released by Andrew Brandt of the National Football Post as well as some other information I have been able to gather we can see a very interesting valuation of Mangold's contract.
Like Revis, Mangold is clearly the best player at his position. Like Revis, Mangold is under a rookie contract. Like Revis, Mangold is affected by both the reallocation rule and the 30% rule. So how did Mangold get the deal done and what concessions did he make to have the contract happen?
The market for centers was set by Jason Brown of the Rams who signed a contract for five years, worth $37.5 million, 20 million of which was guaranteed. In the first three years of the contract he will earn 24 million dollars. If you want to make the argument that Mangold deserves to be the highest paid interior lineman then the two contracts to look at would be G Jahri Evans of the New Orleans Saints and the former contract of G Alan Faneca. Though Faneca's contract is no longer on the books he played on the same team as Mangold and the contract is fresh enough in the books that Mangold could at least point to it.
Mangold actually signed a contract that will run for eight seasons. The Jets essentially gave Mangold a $4 million dollar raise in 2010 and have the new extension actually kick in starting in 2011. The value of the extension is $54.075M and the total contract value is $57.6M. While the total money is larger than any of the other players lets see how the deal actually stacks up.
| Three Year Total
| Average per year
As you can see from the chart, Mangold agreed to have the highest guarantee of any comparable interior lineman,
however his yearly figures are actually below those of everyone else.
On a yearly basis Mangold will actually earn 4% less than Brown of the Rams.
He will also earn the lowest three year total of any player.
There is a lesson to be learned when actually putting those numbers in context.
Every one of those other players was a free agent of some sort when they signed their contract. Mangold was not.
He knew that there was always the possibility of the Leon Washington injury that would diminish his value if he
played the season out under his current deal. Clearly that was taken into account when he agreed to a deal that
did not drastically wipe out the market the way that Revis is reportedly looking to do.
Mangold's teams seems to have viewed the extension value as something different than the total contract value. Its something the Jets more or less proposed to Revis early on by asking him to keep his current contract structure, for the most part, and add on big money years at the end. Lets look at the Mangold contract just from the standpoint of the seven extension years.
| Three Year Total
| Average per year
In this context Mangold gets what everyone assumed he would. His three year total is only under than of Evans. His per year average now exceeds Brown's.
Mangold basically becomes the highest paid center under any metric, but only when viewed as a pure extension.
This is a point that Revis' side has continually refused to take into account by asking the team to throw out
the remaining three years of his deal and replace them with the highest end money.
What about full guarantees? Mangold has $15.627M in future money that is guaranteed for injury only and a total of slightly over $22 million that is guaranteed for injury. He was given the option for a skill or injury guarantee and chose to protect himself from catastrophic injury. He did not receive a full guarantee or rolling skill guarantee. So in essence only 29% of his reported guarantee is actually fully guaranteed. Ferguson, further out from free agency, received even less percentage guaranteed, but can quickly guarantee the remainder by playing the 2010 year at a high level. Either way the bar has been set for Revis by his own teammates that he has to choose one or the other and will not receive both.
Since so little is actually guaranteed what type of raise did Mangold get? Mangold was scheduled to make $3.3 million in salary and will now be paid slightly over $7.3 million, which represents a 122% increase over his former pay. Ferguson's salary also doubled. Depending on who you listen to Revis is looking for a jump in salary from $550K to either $16 million or as much as $45 million in year one. That is simply not what the Jets are doing right now.
The bottom line is that Mangold accepted a deal that was below free market value to ensure long term security and allow both sides to feel happy with the contract. He did not demand to match the highest contract of all time nor did he receive that. Based on the contract that Mangold received and using the Nnamdi Asomugha deal as the baseline, Revis should be willing to accept $13.75 million per season with 27.5 million or so in guarantees and a three year total around $41 million. At this point the ball really is in Revis' court. Every other player is following these guidelines in this uncapped year and its time for Revis to consider doing the sament below and I will add to the above list.
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How can playing an extra year get him only 975K more? Unless he actually has that in his contract? The last year is 925k?
How can the value of the extension be 54MM and the value of the contract be 55MM, and he gets a 4MM raise?
Put another way how much does he make in:
I dont have the particulars on the deal yet so I cant give the yearly figures just yet. I probably could have been a bit more clear in those different numbers you talk about.
The raise Im talking about is what he received in short term money this year. Mangold was scheduled to make 3.3M he will now earn 7.3M due to a signing bonus. Its the only portion of the contract that is fully guaranteed and if the Jets decide to cut him that is the raise he receives for signing the deal.
The value of the extension represents the new money in the contract, which is about 54 million. Its all the bonuses (option, roster, signing etc...), base salaries, and escalated salaries that he did not have in his prior contract. It is what he receives for agreeing to 7 new years with the Jets.
The 55M dollar total contract number includes the old 2010 year that he had on his former contract. Its not really part of the extension and is worth about 1 million dollars, the amount of money he was set to make before reaching an incentive that raised his 2010 salary last year. So the difference in the two numbers I have listed is due to the salary paid in 2010.
It seems to me the Jets got a GOOD deal for them.
I assume if Mangold had played out this year, he would get a bunch more.
But there is that risk, and Mangolds locked in 20+MM , plus whatever he earns that isn't guaranteed, so he is set for life.
On ProFootBall talk, they write that Ferguson got a bad deal. I'm sure they will say the same about Mangold. But I have to assume both of them are reasonably happy, else they wouldn't have signed.
I am really happy the Jets signed those two to reasonable contracts. Leaving money available for others.