Inside the Numbers: Jets vs Browns
If not for special teams this would have been an easy win…
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+PA%|
Analysis: These numbers are a bit surprising to me. Watching the game I figured Sanchez had an A+ game, but the reality is he played a really bad pass defense and he basically put up the average numbers against them. There were three positive categories for Sanchez on the day. He put up his usual positive 20+ category, this week being nearly 15% above average, and kept the interceptions low against an opportunistic defense. His sack numbers, at -11.4%, were still solid, though nowhere near as good as they had been in recent weeks. Honestly the offensive line deserves no credit for holding the Browns under the norm as Sanchez escaped heavy pressure. The more or less average completion percentage was a major step forward for Sanchez and seemed like a carryover from the end of last weeks Lions game.
Analysis:This must have eaten Edwards up on the inside as he had one of the most favorable matchups he will see this year and simply did not deliver. He was basically 35% down in every major category . Had Sanchez made a better pass on the interception that may have changed the numbers, as Edwards was wide open when the ball was thrown. Edwards did draw coverage which may have helped the other players, but statistically this was one of his worst games of the season.
|Browns (WR 2)||2.9||34.6||12.0||20.9|
Analysis: A monster of a game for Holmes who throttled the normal secondary coverage provided by the Browns. Much like last week this is what the Jets imagined when they signed him. The Jets now force teams to make a choice between Holmes and Edwards and one is likely going to be let loose. For the second week in a row Holmes’ numbers were off the charts as he is more or less a number 1 that has a major advantage when treated as a 2 in coverage.
Analysis: Clearly Cotchery’s best game of the season and unfortunately he got injured while laying out for a catch. Cotchery was able to get open often and he made the big TD play. Cotchery had no issues catching the ball and, much like Holmes, was able to exploit the fact that he should be a better than average third passing target.
Analysis: Not much going on for Keller this week. He never could shake coverage deep and when he did catch the ball was being brought down right away. He probably expected more our of himself, but it is very hard to consistently produce week in and out as a tight end. As long as he never puts together more than two in a row subpar games he will be fine.
Analysis: First game of the season where the Jets made a conscious effort to utilize the runners our of the backfield and it paid off big for them. The reception totals were nearly 200% above the average against the Browns and the Jets showed no fear in checking down. The 5% above average YPR and 41% above average long reception I believe were the first positive numbers of the year for the position in those categories. The decision to use the runners in the passing game really helped move the chains and keep the drives going.
Analysis: This was slightly better than last weeks game of all -30’s, but we are now at a month of poor production from Tomlinson and its officially a trend at this point. To his credit there did not seem to be a lot of no gain type plays as he was a consistent 2 or 3 yards on every carry, but they will need more than this from someone as the weather turns colder. Don’t be surprised if the touches between he and Green continue to be split in the coming weeks as the Jets hope one of the two stands out.
Analysis:Not as good as last week, but he is still producing a positive YPA and long run compared to other backups, which makes him the hotter hand right now. Unfortunately he is still not shattering the backup numbers the way that Tomlinson did early this year which is starting to make me think Greene’s long term upside is going to be as a decent backup to a better runner. He is going to get more opportunities these next few weeks, but the Jets will likely be addressing this position in the offseason if things remain at this level.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+/Att|
Analysis: The team did a good job here in keeping McCoy’s completion percentage down, but the real strength of the defense was in the lack of big plays allowed. McCoy was having a year where about 16% of his attempts went for over 20 yards. Only 3% of those went for 20 in this game, an 80% decrease. That is what saved the Jets as it was too hard for McCoy to be able to dink and dunk his way consistently against a good defense. The Jets again came up with no interceptions with is alarming and the sacks were down by nearly 27%, two negatives that seem to be there every week. A few sacks were coverage sacks so the number is really worse there. If the Jets had a better pass rush it might help the secondary have more turnover chances. Last year, though the sack totals were low, it was effective pressures off the blitz leading to really bad throws. This year its not really effective pressures as its been more about great long coverage than QB’s internal clocks forcing them into a quick throw.
Analysis:People are going to overstate Massquoi’s TD reception, but the truth is that was an extremely well designed play that the Jets had almost no chance of stopping. His yardage totals, which are the important stat here, were all about 70% below his norms.
Analysis: Maybe the Jets caught a break with Cribbs getting injured which makes it hard to rate how their play was here. His big play was not the fault of the secondary but of LB Bart Scott who, rather than attempting to cover him, just shoved him even further into the open at which point the turned on the Jets and ran right by everyone that was deep in coverage.
Analysis: Though Stuckey did end up with 39% more receptions, all his passes were about 30% below his normal yardage range as the Jets were willing to give up these underneath routes. Even if he did not fumble that ball you would have to say the Jets did what they wanted to do with him in this game.
Analysis:Watson has had some big games in the past against the Jets and this was another one. Watson is the kind of player the Jets had trouble with at times early in the season and he exploited some weaknesses in the secondary. His 27% above average yards per catch was a real killer on the day. And you can bet that Rex Ryan will be focusing on that this week.
More or less a slightly above average on Hillis in the passing game. The Jets did well to not allow him extra yards after he caught the ball, an improvement over last weeks poor effort against Detroit.
Analysis:A lot of people seemed to think that Hillis was just going to run over the Jets and some may point to the 4.3 YPC as some type of justification that he did, but that number is nearly 11% below his norm. The Jets did a very good job in not letting him break through the second line of defenders to get into the secondary where he can just run over players. A long run that is 32% below his average is the way you keep momentum from changing.
Not a great effort, but other than a few spots here and there this was a pretty solid effort on both sides of the football. They had one busted coverage against Cribbs, a poor showing against the tight end, and did not get a ground game going, but otherwise were more or less solid all the way around, for the first time in probably 5 weeks. Yes the fact that the defense gave up the score late in the game does hurt and is going to be talked about on talk radio as a blow on the defense, but overall they had a better game than most think. This near tie was all on the kicker who missed everything. The reality is the Jets should have scored 26 by the end of regulation at which point this would have been a rather workmanlike victory on the road.
Santonio Holmes: A
Jerricho Cotchery: A
Mark Sanchez: B
Defensive Line: B
Shonn Greene: B
LaDainian Tomlinson: C+
Offensive Line: C
Braylon Edwards: C-
Dustin Keller: C-