Inside the Numbers: Jets vs Patriots
For this week and for one more week I am going to work with the 2009 stats to use as a basis for comparison. Starting week 4 all comparisons will be made with the current season players. Just to clear up any confusion on the QB Stats TPA% is the percentage of touchdowns per pass attempts, IPA % is the percentage of interceptions per pass attempts, SPA % is sacks per pass attempt, and 20+PA is the percentage of big plays over 20 yards per pass play. As always comments are always welcome here or via email.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+PA%|
Analysis: A tremendous game for Sanchez. His completion percentage was far higher than typical and he was excellent in scoring situations. His YPC was slightly lower than average but he had more big plays than is typical against this defense so you can probably say that he made smart usage of the field and took it when t was there rather than forcing the issue. The only alarming stat was sacks allowed as Mark is getting sacked on 10% of his attempts against a team that only generated sacks on 6% of attepts against them last season. The offensive line did not look good and this is more indication of it.
|09 Patriots (WR 1)||4.44||59.69||13.45||22.25|
Analysis: Edwards looked better to the naked eye than what these stats say. Edwards was average on receptions and way below on distance. I guess you could say that the Jets more or less used him as a possession guy this week rather than anywhere down the field. He did have a TD against a team that only allowed 9 Tds to number 1 targets in 2009.
|09 Patriots (WR 2)||3.69||53.25||14.44||24.25|
Analysis: Far below what is standard for a number 2 against New England. Only 3 secondary targets put up less yards against the Patriots last year than J-Co did this game. Whether by design or some flaw in his game he was nowhere near the down field plays that most players made last year. Like Edwards he did catch a TD. The Pats only gave up four scores through the air to secondary receivers so that was a positive.
|09 Patriots (TE1)||2.63||29.31||11.17||14.75|
Analysis: The clear stud of the game. Keller dominated a defense that typically does not get beat up by tight ends. Receptions were 167% above the average with a yards per catch average that was nearly 50% higher than the standard tight end versus the Patriots. I doubt Keller has ever had a better statistical game in his career than he had in this one.
|09 Patriots (RB‘s)||3.50||34.06||9.73||14.94|
Analysis: Essentially the same stat line as last week against Baltimore. You would like to see the gains go for slightly more than they are currently going for, but the Pats kind of sat on those routes in the game assuming the Jets were headed to those targets.
|09 Patriots (RB1)||15.38||74.69||4.86||19.63|
Analysis: Not a very strong offensive game from the young running back who, through two games, looks nothing like the player we saw a year ago. Maybe the Patriots run defense has drastically improved from last season, but the YPC and lack of big play production has to be somewhat alarming to the team. If this continues he may lose more touches to LaDainian Tomlinson or become the 4th quarter back that is sent in take advantage of what should be a tired defensive line.
|09 Patriots (RB2)||6.00||21.94||3.66||9.19|
Analysis: Clearly he is outperforming the standard number two runner and is slowly going to be accepted as the 1A by both the media and the fan base if this output continues. New England never had problems with players brought in to spell the top runner last year and Tomlinson tore them apart. The Jets look like geniuses so far with the move to sign him.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+/Att|
Analysis: Major improvements over the Baltimore game. Brady’s interception rate was through the roof showing how much the Jets defense was confusing him and how the good the coverage was at times by Antonio Cromartie. The Jets were victimized by big plays last week and while they did give up the two big ones when they fell asleep late in the first half, that is still way below the average for New England. The decision to drop more players into coverage, particularly in the second half to help slow down Aaron Hernandez really paid off. Sacks were about average despite not bringing the heat as they did last week and this was actually an improvement from the last game. The one constant from the two games thus far is the completion percentage numbers which were way down for both guys the team faced.
Analysis:Whatever you want to call it- Revis Island, Cromartie Island- Moss had a bad day. He made that one spectacular catch when Revis reinsured his hamstring, but was quiet the rest of the day. He was held to 60% below his norms in receptions and 50% below his normal yardage totals. For all but one play he was the same as any other wideout and nothing special. His 34 yard pass catch was pretty much his norm and the only reason his per catch average is so high was because he just hauled in that long pass and was never heard from again.
Analysis: The Jets clearly wanted to key on Welker after he ripped them apart in 2009. The team heard all week how they had no ability to cover him and that he was the guy that would really hurt the team. He did have a score and runs some very crisp routes that the announcers go nuts over, but he could only get open, for the most part, on these little routes to the sidelines. His YPR was ridiculously low compared to his averages and they never allowed him to catch the ball on the run and just scamper up the field, holding to a long reception of just 11 yards. A dominating performance by the secondary.
Analysis:It is not exactly fair to compare Watson, the Patriots starter last year, with Hernandez, but it is clear that the Patriots have received a big upgrade at the position this season. Hernandez blew away anything Watson did last year. The Pats did not use the TE too much last year and Hernandez became the primary target for Brady. The Jets did a better job against him in the second half but he was the one player where the defense really failed, the second time in two games where the big player against the defense was a tight end.
The team did a good job in limiting the use of the runners in the passing game and the distance numbers are somewhat skewed by a late game 19 yard pass to Sammy Morris when the jets were a bit softer in coverage.
Analysis: New England does not really employ a feature back of any sort so I lumped
everyone in together for this. For the second week in a row the Jets dominated the line of scrimmage defensively to completely stuff the run game. They allowed no big runs and held the team to nearly 40% below their normal average. The running game was basically a non-factor.
Clearly a much better game this week by the team in some key areas, namely secondary play and passing offense. The Jets still are not really using their wide receivers as much as the situation would seem to dictate, but if they make up for it by allowing Dustin Keller to play deep into the secondary it will all balance out at the end of the day. What was a very encouraging sign was seeing no drop in the run defense, “Revis” coverage assignment, or play of Tomlinson. Expect the Jets to focus this week on stopping the tight end, though Anthony Fasano does not present the same type of matchup problem as the prior two matchups did, figuring out why Greene is not playing great, and see if they can improve the pass protection schemes. Two weeks in a row Sanchez has taken some big hits and that can not continue.
Dustin Keller: A+
Defensive Line: A
LaDainian Tomlinson: A
Mark Sanchez: B+
Braylon Edwards: C
Shonn Greene: C-
Jerricho Cotchery: C-