Inside the Numbers: Jets vs Dolphins
I skipped the Patriots game last week since there were absolutely no positives that I expected to take from the game. It was a bad game that got out of control and is not typical of the team. This one could and should be a different story.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+PA%|
Analysis: This was a nightmare game for the team. Where the issues really began are in the sack numbers. Sanchez was brought down 77% more times than the Dolphins usually bring down the QB. That number would have been even worse if not for Mark’s ability to elude the pass rush. When the line breaks down like that it completely throws a QB’s internal clock off. That also helps lead to the horrendous completion percentage and yards per attempt from Sanchez. When you have a line like that you have to be smart enough to take short routes and dump offs to at least gain positive yardage. This is either a skill that Sanchez does not have or a flaw in the offensive game planning. His YPC was nearly 18% over the norm which just lends more to the fact that he is only throwing the ball deeper. Its doubtful that this is all on the planning as Chad in 2007 and Favre in 2008 both took big hits in the YPC by duping the ball off when necessary in the face of a brutal rush. So I think we have to assume those routes are there and the QB just does not take them. Sanchez’ 20+ category was down 75% and don’t think for a second that this is a stat that teams have not taken awareness of. It is the one category where Sanchez does well. When you take those passes away you are taking away 75% of his effectiveness. Sanchez needs to really be coached up well at this point because there has been almost no progression in his game this year. He does the same things well this year that he did last year and the same things poorly. Even the interception rate, which is down, is partially caused by an inordinate number of passes being dropped by the other team. Things are not looking very positive right now.
Analysis:I don’t even know what to make of this at this point. I’m still listing Edwards as the top receiver, but nothing ever comes his way. It is like he is nothing more than a decoy. I only recall two passes being thrown to him. The completion and a horribly under thrown pass toward the sidelines. I cant even tell if this is a lack of effort from Braylon or a lack of confidence by his teammates and staff. Either way he has become a nonfactor in the offense which is seeing other guys take on more and more coverage from the secondary.
|Dolphins (WR 2)||2.8||36.1||12.8||19.3|
Analysis: I guess I should start listing Holmes as the 1 since he gets all the looks now in the ofense. Holmes dropped the 1 pass that would have given him all his stats in the positive. Other than the drop he played well on the day, though the Jets expect him to shatter the norms for a 2. The problems with the statline are the same ones Edwards had early in the year. They put up numbers that excel in the YPR and LNG categories and those balance out the yardage, but total recptions are way down. You need a balance of deep passes and completions. The Jets just seem to aim for the deep pass and then abandon everything else. That might explain why Holmes finished the day with just 2 receptions.
Analysis:You cant ask for much more out of Cotchery than this. He is supposed to be a number 3 and the Jets anticipate that he would put up huge numbers in that role which is what he did here. Does Sanchez look his way too often? Probably, especially on third down, but he is the one guy who played his role this week. That is a positive.
Analysis: Another week and another game where Keller fails to produce in the receptions or yards category. The book is starting to be closed on the young man and where he will be in this offense for the foreseeable future. Keller does have the ability to get open deeper than the average tight end. Most weeks, when he shows up, his yards per reception and long reception are always better than average. His total catches rarely are. Its not like Edwards where he is never looked at, so its probably more of an issue of lack of growth on Keller’s part. Athletically he is very gifted, but his on the field performance has not significantly changed since his rookie season.
Analysis: I think you have to give the Dolphins a great deal of credit here for eliminating LT from the equation as almost all the stats came from Shonn Greene who is not normally used in the passing game. Miami recognized this could be a weakness and they played it perfectly. Had Tomlinson had his normal day in the pass game these stats would have blown away the norms.
I have now combined the two runners as one in the stats since the Jets are using these two in a manner most teams do not in terms of carries. Neither runner played well as evidenced by yet another week of no double digit gains. The rest of the failure is on the offensive line which is just not very good this season. The stats this year in both running and pass protection have been horrible. The blame is on them more than anyone else. The poor play from the line has made the running game go from a position of strength into one of weakness. With RT Damien Woody being shut down for good expect it to get worse.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+/Att|
Analysis: Quite the bounceback for the defense this week. The weather helped, but Chad Henne was an epic disaster. For as bad as Sanchez looked he was significantly better than Henne. The Jets held him to 55% below his normal completion percentage which is outstanding. Even better was the pass rush which nabbed nearly 500% more sacks per attempt than usual for the Dolphins. That is only the second game this season where the rush really got after the QB. There were two negative categories here which is why Rex probably got on his defense. One was the TD reception, but that really isn’t fair. Yes Henne normally does not throw one, but its not like it was a special play. They caught Rex and the defense paid for it. The second is the alarming one and that is the lack of interceptions. The Jets really should have had at least 1 yesterday with the way Henne was under pressure and throwing the ball. That number has been low all year and is probably the best chance for a defensive score. Im not sure if you can really point the finger at anyone in that regard but they need more of a ball hawk back there, most likely at safety, next season.
Analysis:Quite the night for CB Antonio Cromartie who had the bulk of the assignments. Marshall torched him in week 2 and in this one Cromartie held him to 1 reception and the Jets held him to nearly 80% below his yearly averages. He did grab a score but that had nothing to do with the secondary play.
Analysis: Bess was a non factor thanks to CB Darrelle Revis. Not that this is shutting down Larry Fitzgerald or anything, but this was probably Bess’ worst game as a pro. It is becoming more and more apparent that teams are just playing 10 on 10 with Revis this year and minimizing his chances to capitalize on a mistake.
Analysis: No surprise to see the Tight End being the one position to put up a few positives in the game. Overall the day was solid, but his 28 yard reception represented a 62% increase over his norm and was his second biggest reception of the year. It was also no surprise that the catch seemed to be the result of a blown assignment which saw him running free. That has happened all season.
What a performance. On a day when you would expect these pass routes to happen they never materialized for Miami. When they tried it the guys were tightly covered. Other times the backs had to stay in and block. A great showing.
Analysis:I actually thought watching the game that the Jets did a better job here than they did statistically. Though they held Brown to about 9% below his average that is not all that much better than they normally do with most starters in the league. When you consider that he was held 26% below his normal long run it really means that on an every down basis the Jets were just normal, which I would never have guessed watching the game. >
Analysis:the Jets clearly did better against Williams, who is sent more into the meat of the line than Brown, which is where the Jets excelled this week. Williams had been putting up some decent numbers recently so the Jets sent him back to Earth nicely this week.
The flaws in the offense are pretty apparent. The offensive line is in shambles and it has killed the team. The decision making process going into the passing game is flawed. I cant say where that flaw is and if it lies with Sanchez or Brian Schottenheimer, but unless the Jets can utilize the underneath stuff and all their receivers better odds are it won’t get better. The defense played so well in this game it is criminal that they lost, but until the offense can find a way to capitalize on turnovers that wont change even if it happens again this week. With the funk the offense is in don’t be surprised if Rex has the defense go super aggressive into Pittsburgh, a team his is very familiar with, and take a ton of chances hoping to score points for the team.
Defensive Line: A
Jerricho Cotchery: B+
Santonio Holmes: C+
Dustin Keller: C
Shonn Greene: C-
Braylon Edwards: F
LaDainian Tomlinson: F
Mark Sanchez: F
Offensive Line: F