NFL Efficiency- Week 5 Tweet
Week 5 is in the books so here are the updated numbers. Obviously there is alot of movement since the sample size is small right now, but we shall see how it shakes out from here. Some of the negative scoring teams are definitely a surprise, but they have a few weeks to turn that around. Here is the same explanation from last week as to what these ratings mean:
What these rankings measure is how much better or worse a team performs on average, in terms of scoring, than expected based on their schedule. So for instance a team with a 50% scoring efficiency would indicate that a team is scoring 50% more than their opponents have allowed in their other games on the season. So for example say that the team with a 50% score plays a squad that gives up 17 PPG, the average expectation is they would score 25.5 points. Scoring measures all facets of a game including special team and defensive scores, so it is not entirely a measure of offensive performance, though offense makes up the bulk of the score.
Defensive efficiency is the exact opposite in which we are measuring how much below the norm the defense is holding a team. Points here do include special teams scores and scores given up by the offense, but again, for the most part, it is a measure of defense. So in this situation a team with a 50% defensive efficiency that faces a team scoring 25.5 points a game would be expetced to hold the team to 12.75 points.
The overall results at the end of a season are pretty highly correlated with actual wins and losses, though at this point in the year, because the sample size is so small and blowout wins and losses skew the numbers, they won't provide much indication of future prospects. You usually need about 1/2 season before the numbers start to mean anything, but it does give a better idea of who is playing well due to SOS and who is actually playing well. I'm also tinkering with a drive efficiency this year in terms of scoring. I'll have something posted on that at some point and I also like to track yardage in a similar manner that I am doing here. I may not get to that until the midway point, however.
NFL Efficiencty Rankings, Thru Week 5
|Rank||Change||Team||Scoring Efficiency||Defensive Efficiency||Total Efficiency|
|1||+6||San Francisco 49ers||22.29%||46.17%||68.46%|
|6||-||New England Patriots||39.53%||0.00%||39.53%|
|7||+2||Green Bay Packers||17.89%||16.48%||34.37%|
|10||+6||St. Louis Rams||-5.00%||24.80%||19.80%|
|13||-1||New York Giants||40.31%||-29.74%||10.57%|
|17||-4||San Diego Chargers||-17.91%||11.10%||-6.81%|
|21||+4||New York Jets||-9.39%||-4.50%||-13.89%|
|23||-4||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-20.95%||4.68%||-16.27%|
|26||+5||New Orleans Saints||15.34%||-50.98%||-35.64%|
|28||-||Kansas City Chiefs||-27.69%||-12.40%||-40.10%|