Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_benchmark::start() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/installation.class.inc.php on line 32

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get_instance() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 77

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php:162) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 182

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::load() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/installation.class.inc.php on line 33

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_setting::read() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 305

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 67

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 35

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::factory() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 436

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::parseDSN() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 379

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::loadClass() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 388

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 330

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 389

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::parseDSN() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2353

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::setOptions() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 395

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 396

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 437

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 442

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 36

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1911

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::fileExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1911

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::loadClass() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1918

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 330

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1937

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 154

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4147

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1608

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1655

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 315

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get_instance() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 77

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php:162) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 182

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::load() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 316

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_setting::read_all() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 90

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 92

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Declaration of HTML_QuickForm_hidden::accept() should be compatible with HTML_QuickForm_element::accept(&$renderer, $required = false, $error = NULL) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm/hidden.php on line 93

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_benchmark::mark() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/comment.php on line 153

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_query::add_element() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 309

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_query::get_instance() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/query.class.inc.php on line 132

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_comment::identifier() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/comment.php on line 166

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::call_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/comment.class.inc.php on line 377

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::container() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 52

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Declaration of gentlesource_module_smiley::administration() should be compatible with gentlesource_module_common::administration() in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/module/gentlesource_module_smiley/gentlesource_module_smiley.class.inc.php on line 261

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_time::current_timestamp() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/commentlist.class.inc.php on line 104

Strict Standards: mktime(): You should be using the time() function instead in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/time.class.inc.php on line 28

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::fields() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/commentlist.class.inc.php on line 116

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 451

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 154

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4147

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1608

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1655

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 455

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

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Estimating the Value of WR Stevie Johnson
New York Jets Salary Cap Page

Estimating the Value of WR Stevie Johnson

I had a request to look at Buffalo Bills WR Stevie Johnson, so here goes. Johnson is one of those real success stories in the NFL. Based on draft positioning you would not expect much from Johnson. He was a 7th round pick in the 2008 NFL draft, picks that often have about as much a chance at success in the NFL as an undrafted free agent. Johnson ended up on a team with relatively poor QB play, a rotation that included JP Losman, Trent Edwards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Johnson has played for 3 head coaches and an offense that typically ranks in the 20s in yardage. Yet somehow Johnson has overcome the odds and is set to cash in big as an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

Earlier this year there were reports that Johnson was seeking about $7.5 million a year from the Bills, a figure that the Bills reportedly were not interested in discussing, offering closer to $5.5 million a season. Talks broke down as the Bills finalized a ridiculous contract for journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and would be tabled until the offseason. So what would the market look like for Johnson now?

Comparable Players

Johnsons 3 years leading into his contract season are not all that different than the players I used to compare with Santonio Holmes of the Jets last season, so weíll go back to those players. Unlike Holmes, Johnsons path follows more closely with that of Greg Jennings and Roddy White in that he was a non factor in the first of those 3 years. So I updated the numbers by using a weighted average for the players, with 60% weight being given to the most recent season, 30% to the prior year, and 10% to the first season I am using as a comparison. The only exceptions are YPR and % targets caught, which are totals. Why do I like to use three years? I like to use three years to factor in the 1 year wonder aspect of a player. You want to pay for the least risk possible and a player with 1 miracle year is a huge risk.

Name Games RPG YPG YPR TDPG Tgt/G % caught
Roddy White 16 5.04 77.53 15.37 0.38 8.52 57.6%
Reggie Wayne 16 4.98 67.49 13.55 0.46 7.40 66.3%
Stevie Johnson 14.9 4.72 62.10 13.14 0.48 8.28 57.3%
Greg Jennings 14.9 4.59 74.79 16.29 0.62 8.03 57.1%
Santonio Holmes 13.5 4.47 66.97 14.97 0.41 8.13 54.1%
Lee Evans 16 3.91 62.13 15.91 0.26 6.80 56.8%
Miles Austin 14.8 3.58 59.66 16.66 0.51 5.56 63.1%

Where does Johnson do well? He ranks 2nd in Tds and targets per game. Where Johnson falls short is yards per game and yards per reception, where he ranks dead last. The fact that he has a high amount of targets and touchdowns tells me he has the makings of a number 1 receiver. His getting into the end zone this year has what has really made him noticeable, especially since he makes a scene whenever he scores. The fact that he has decent success on the targets means its more than just being the lucky guy on a bad team. His opportunities do translate into yards.

The low yards per reception and yards per game says something about both his upside and perhaps the passing game of the Bills. Johnsons upside is more of a possession guy than home run hitter. You probably need better QB play than Fitzpatrick to really realize Johnsons full upside. The 57.3% catch rate, while ranking third, may not be what you want from someone who is going to be a possession guy. Thatís probably the risk. On the safer side though you would expect that type of player to continue to do well even as they get older and slow down a little.

The Market

Name Years Avg Per Year (millions) Three Year (millions) Guarantee (millions)
Lee Evans 5 8.3 28.9 18.3
Reggie Wayne 6 6.5 15.1 15.1
Roddy White 5 8.5 31.3 18.6
Greg Jennings 3 8.8 26.4 16.3
Santonio Holmes 5 9.0 29.0 24.0
Miles Austin 5 9.0 30.3 18.0

The real big change to the market came in the form of Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys. Austin was one of those one year wonders when the Cowboys rewarded him with a 6 year, $54.1 million dollar contract. Other than some of the big number categories such as YPR, there was almost no reason for Austin to be given the deal he was given. Austinís contract completely changed the playing field, representing a 5.5% increase over the White contract on a per year basis despite White being a much better and more proven player. It was likely the Austin deal that led to Holmes receiving $9 million a year from the Jets rather than the $8.5 million or so White received. Not surprisingly Austinís numbers have never been close to the production that occurred in the year prior to his new contract and his contract is hard to justify at this point even though he is still effective when healthy.

So where do we place Johnson in this group? Immediately eliminate Holmes and Jennings from the group. They just showed more than Johnson and while Johnson has the upside to improve even more, it would be unrealistic to expect those levels consistently. He is a better player than Evans who was more of a one trick pony with the deep passes. His closer players are Holmes and Wayne. It is arguable if he is better than Holmes when Holmes signed his contract with the Jets. Holmes is more of a threat though both caught passes in the end zone. Johnson is slightly more reliable.

In Wayneís case you have to factor in the fact that he put these stats up with Peyton Manning as his QB and Manning can inflate a players numbers across the board. He probably cant get to Wayneís level but at least you could make the argument that if the Bills end up with an upper echelon QB he has that type of upside. Wayneís contract is very old and adjusting it based on franchise tag growth through the years we are getting a value of something like $8.8 million in 2011.

The Verdict

Johnson had said he would give the Bills a discount to remain in Buffalo and that will probably need to happen if he is to remain a Bill. Buffalo has not exactly been known as a big spender and the few times they have spent it seems to not work out for them. The biggest scare for them is that he turns into another Lee Evans. Evans played well enough to justify the contract, but once the deal was signed Evans fell off a cliff. His best season was 612 yards in 2009 and the Bills traded him in 2011. Teams, I believe, get scared off when they see similar situations between players they signed.

The Bills are going to point to the decline of Evans, Austin, Holmes, and former Cowboy Roy Williams as reasons that Johnson is not worth the money he is seeking. Still for every bust there is a success. Wayne, White, and Jennings were huge successes, not to mention the recent explosion of the Packers Jordy Nelson who they wisely locked up before his great season. It is a 50/50 proposition and you have to pay for that chance in the NFL.

Because the guys right at the top of the list did not live up to the deals I donít think you will see Johnson ask for or get $9 million a season. To come up with his value Ill compare him with the success guys of Wayne, White, and Jennings. In looking at how he performs across the categories I calculate his value to be about 97% of Wayneís, 94% of Whiteís, and just under 92% of Jenningsí when they all signed their contract extensions. To come up with a final value Iím adjusting each of their deals based on the franchise tag growth of about 6 ľ% each year over the last 4 years and calculating based on that since that puts those deals in todays dollars.

Johnson should be worth somewhere between $8.45 and $8.6 million a year to a team. There is no escape from a three year total, which is essentially guaranteed. Other than Jennings, who only received 3 new years, all of the current long term extension players received around $30 million. He should not receive less than $28.5 million. In terms of firm guarantees he will be in the $18 million range. Holmes received $24 million which is far more than anyone else at the position, but nearly $8 million of that is a conditional guarantee based on being on the roster, something that he may not even be by the end of this month. That brings his real guarantee down into the $16 million range. So he will probably receive around $18 million in guaranteed money.

If the Bills can get Johnson for $7.5 million a season itís a real steal. If the team still believes he is only worth $5.5 million a season then there is no possible way to reach a deal. Johnson is worth far more on the open market. The Bills can threaten Johnson with the franchise tag, but with an estimate of about $9.3 million I canít see why they would do that. The franchise tag is meant for either an older player that is still playing well, such as 31 year old Wes Welker, or a one year wonder like Austin. Johnson will be 26 and has already put together 2 solid seasons. Franchising him does not benefit Buffalo in any way.

Iíd be surprised if Johnson ends up under $8 million a season, unless it contains some relatively easy incentives to bump up the value of the deal. I also canít see him reaching the $9 million threshold, but he firmly belongs somewhere in between. Buffalo should be coming down from that number not up from $5.5 million if they really want to keep him. If the $7.5 million a year still stands they should be calling up Johnsonís agent and asking him if Johnson can sign that deal right now. I guess we shall see in the next few months how this all plays out.

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Comments (9)

Does it hurt Stevie's value at all that he has the tendancy to drop passes in key situations (@Steelers OT drop in '10 and @Jets 4Q in '11)?

Also what about the excessive celebration penalties that hurt the team? Does that factor into the negotiations? Chan Gailey was so fed up with it, that Johnson was benched the last three quarters of the season finale vs New England.

It is allowable to put in a contract clause that takes money away in future years for unsportsmanlike conduct penalties?
#1 - Jay - 01/24/2012 - 17:02
Jay- I doubt it. We all remember those as fans because its all over ESPN, but his actual TD numbers were very good. You cant take money away for unsportsmanlike as far as I know, but Im sure the antics minimize the amount Buffalo wants to pay him. The issue is that I dont think it minimizes what others will pay. Until he began to lose a step all of TOs issues (and he destroyed locker rooms everywhere he seemed to go) meant nothing to his bottom line.
#2 - Jason - 01/25/2012 - 04:21
Where do you think Wes Welker is going to fall in this? Does NE franchise him for ~$11 mil, short-term contract or go with a typical 4-5 year WR contract despite his age?

With respect to the contracts given above, his production and importance should exceed all the players listed, do you think he gets Fitzgerald money, or will his age prevent that?

If they do go longer term (4+ years), I think it would be smart to front-load the money incase age/injuries start slowing him down in a few years and Gronk comes looking for his big payday when he becomes a free agent. It seems like they can afford a front loaded deal with the cap numbers you have posted.
#3 - Jay - 01/26/2012 - 18:02
Welker will either be franchised or they will let him walk. NE doesnt hold onto guys as they age and Welker is a great system player of which there are few systems for him to fit into. No chance he would ever get Fitzgerald money. I would think if he went elsewhere he would be a slightly better version of Brandon Stokley. There is just no way to justify a high cost for a small 31 year old slot receiver.
#4 - Jason - 01/27/2012 - 04:28
But do you think NE could replace him that readily? A system guy may be, in that system he seems extremely valuable. I'm just not sure NE could plug in Brandon Stokley or whoever (Edelman in the same role?) and get that same production.

As a Jets fan, I would welcome the Pats to let Welker go, but with the appearant cap space they have available, I'm not sure what else they would do with it... unless they want to go get Stevie Johnson or Desean Jackson...
#5 - Jay - 01/27/2012 - 14:16
Jason,
When do the Pats have to pay big $$$ for Rob Gronkowski (and pretty good $$$ for Aaron Hernandez)?
#6 - Brandon - 01/30/2012 - 02:34
According to the Pats cap page here on this site, they are both signed through 2013. I'm guessing they only keep Gronk. TE's are in high demand, thus someone else will overpay for Hernandez.
#7 - Jay - 01/31/2012 - 18:01
Sorry for the delay in response guys just been a very busy week or two. I think the issue with Welker is that he is a guy that catches the ball 4 and 5 yards off the line and has to run to do anything with it later. Those guys slow down with age. When asked to make the big catch in the SB he came up way short. Im pretty sure he will be there next year but not long term. The guy they need to dump is Branch. Hes a non-factor in todays game. They need a bigger play threat to stretch the field.

The TEs will be there through 2013 and since the tag is likely low one will be tagged in 2014. Its too early to say who they keep. Gronkowski is the far better player. If Hernandez was elsewhere he would be considered a nice player but nothing special. Being on NE makes him known and the Pats dont value that at all.
#8 - Jason - 02/06/2012 - 22:57
What's missing from the analysis for this season (besides QB play, which was affected by Fitzpatrick's rib injury in the Washington game, after which his performance took a nosedive), is that Johnson was playing with a bad groin all season long. Not to mention he'll be 26 on July 22nd of this year and played sparingly his first 2 years, meaning he's got less wear-and-tear on him.
#9 - Raj - 02/19/2012 - 15:59
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