The Timeline and Cost of Revis' Potential Holdout

With more rumors swirling about Darrelle Revis’ unhappiness with his contract and potential of holding out I wanted to put together a timeline of when it would happen and what the financial ramifications I believe would be. Now I have not changed my stance as to why I think this move would be incredibly stupid for Revis since the Jets presently hold all the cards, but this should at least put into perspective when this will actually all go down if it gets that far. Now as a disclaimer, this is completely uncharted territory because of the new CBA and their new holdout language clauses which I don’t think anyone is familiar with just yet. This is my interpretation of those rules and I admit may not be 100% accurate.

Would Revis hold out this week?

Probably not. The reason for that is primarily money related. Revis earns a workout bonus of $1 million dollars upon completion of the 2012 workouts. While I do not know the particulars of how he earns the bonus it is likely going to be for participation in at least half the dates so it means he has to appear for a majority of OTA’s. This looks to be free money for Revis that is not included in the holdout clauses in the new CBA since you can not forfeit money already earned. So he pockets $1 million in cash whenever he completes his schedule. That’s a nice chunk of change to sit on. Most likely that means the daily Revis watch that is about to begin is a waste of time at least for a few more weeks.

So when will he hold out?

The holdout will likely begin on the second day or so of training camp and not during the current workout sessions. Again I believe this is money related. Revis earns a reporting bonus of $1 million dollars when he reports to camp. Typically those are earned once you show up, take your physical and report to camp. So by showing up ready to go Revis earns $1 million more dollars. If he holds out before that he can’t earn the $1 million. So it pays to wait. Then on day 2 or 3 he will leave camp.

Now the reporting bonus, unlike the workout bonus, falls under the holdout penalty clauses so you may think what is the point in reporting to just have to return the money to the Jets? It seems that under the new holdout terms for the CBA the amount of money that can be recovered by a team is actually dependent on years remaining on a contract. Though a reporting bonus is not accounted for in the manner a signing bonus is, for the purposes of forfeiture the bonuses are prorated over the remaining terms of the deal. Revis technically has 5 years remaining on his contract. Most likely that means this money will be prorated over 5 years, which includes the voidable years, just as his other bonuses were. Those voids disappear once he holds out as well. So it seems as if he is in a position to keep $800,000 and only forfeit $200,000. That is why it pays to report and then hold out rather than hold out now. More free money for Revis.

What are the potential fines?

First we need to define exactly what will be in Revis “forfeitable salary allocation”. Revis received an $18 million option bonus in 2011, but that money will be his to keep. One of the few wins for the players in the CBA was to only make the option bonus part of the calculation if the player held out in the season he was paid the option. Since Revis was paid the option last year it is already earned. He did receive a signing bonus on his last contract of $4,700,500. The allocation to 2012 of that money is $783,416. I believe that that money is subject to forfeit. Revis also was paid a $1 million roster bonus in March and will earn $1 million in a reporting bonus when he reports. If they are prorated over 5 years he only stands to lose $400,000 on those bonuses.

The forfeits come in stages. In stage 1, which occurs on the 6th day, Revis can forfeit 15% of that money, or $177,525 under the 5 year allocation. In stage 2 he loses 1%, $11,835, each day for the next 10 days, a potential total of $118,350. Once camp ends that would leave his total at $295,875 in possible forfeitures.

Stage 3 begins with the start of the regular season. If he misses the first game he loses 25% of the remaining amount, which would translate to an additional loss of $221,906, bringing the grand total up to $517,781. Stage 4 does not begin until Revis misses the 4th game of the season. At that point he will be fined 1/17 of the allocation, $52,213 per week, for each game missed from week 5-17 until it reaches the total of $1,183,500.

Revis can also be fined $30,000 per day of training camp that he misses. That’s a pretty hefty fine, and much larger than the $14,000 from the prior CBA. The CBA defines the preseason as the first day of camp, which is usually the last week of July, through the final roster reduction, usually right after the final preseason game. Six weeks could equal $1,260,000 in fines.

So all in all we are looking at a possible $2,443,500 in forfeiture and fines plus the loss of $4,500,000 in base salary if he misses the whole year. Revis’ offseason would have paid him $3,000,000, so if he held out the whole season and paid all the money back to the Jets he would still have pocketed about $550,000 while holding out.

How will it be accounted for on the salary cap?

With the exception of the fine money, which I do not believe counts towards the cap since its not contract related, all forfeited money should all end up being credited to the Jets the following season. Revis’ base salary will likely count towards this years cap, depending on what the Jets would do with his roster status, with credits received for each game missed. Essentially all the money would carry over to 2013 for the Jets.

What happens to Revis’ contract is he sits out a whole year?

It plays out the same way except the voids will disappear from his contract. He will be set to earn $3 million in offseason compensation (roster, workout, and reporting bonuses) in 2013 plus $3 million in regular season pay. None of it will be guaranteed. He would now be contractually obligated to play for the Jets from 2014-2016 at just $3 million a season in total pay. Obviously the same scenario would play out with Revis going through the motions to pocket a few dollars before holding out again.

What does this mean for the Jets ?

Well if this holdout talk is very real I think it affects the Jets thinking with the draft and free agency in the future. The Jets relationship with Revis’ agents, Neil Schwartz and Jon Feinsod, is already on thin ice. They have represented Pete Kendall and Chris Baker, two relationships that did not end amicably, and also Robert Turner who the Jets did not even attempt to bring back this offseason. They represent 15 current NFL players and another 6 first year/draft prospects that have yet to sign a contract. Other holdout clients have included Vincent Jackson and Roddy White, so they do advise their high profile clients to chance giving up money. In Jackson’s case the Chargers did not budge and he basically lost a full year of salary, but the Jets and Falcons both gave in to the holdout demands. I’m not so sure the Jets will do the same this time around and the landscape has changed greatly in the CBA to limit the possibility of the holdout.