The Ineffectiveness of the New York Jets Tweet
Those who follow the work I do on this site know I track different metrics dealing with scoring, yards, etc… One of the stats I started to track this year was drive efficiency. What drive efficiency can tell us is what the average NFL team accomplishes in terms of yards, points, and plays based on starting field position. Basically think of it this way if you are a team that always starts with the ball on your 20 you have the opportunity to gain more yards than a team who starts on the 35. On the other hand starting a drive inside the opponents 20 is far more likely to result in points than starting with the ball at your own 20. So if we have the number of possessions a team has at the various field positions we can calculate what the team should do and compare it to what they actually are doing. The numbers are all based on the complete data for the 2012 season and adjusted to where final drives of a game or a half that did not result in a score are eliminated from the data set.
Rex likes to claim that the offense is getting better and that they are productive. Everyone knows that its not true and here are the stats that can back it up.
As you can see the Jets are well below expectations for points and yards. The average NFL team would have seen their offense produce about 250 points and 4,373 yards if faced with the same situations that the Jets offense faced in 2012. The Jets have only put together 3,593 yards (remember that this includes penalty yards which is why its higher than the Jets actual yardage) and 191 offensive points. Whats worse is that the plays run is about average meaning the Jets are forced to work hard for minimal yardage. They are a grind team where everything is a chore and nothing results in points. The Jets point production is actually worse than that of the Jacksonville Jaguars (-22.5%) who are an awful football team. How the Jets can not make a change on offense to try to spark the team is beyond me. As crazy as it sounds the team still has an outside shot at the playoffs because of their schedule. Regardless, it has to be made next year whether its with a journeyman backup or Tim Tebow.
Ryan certainly stands by his defense through thick and thin. Lets see how that works out:
Remember here that negative is good when talking about defense so the defense is still doing a good job with expected yardage. The problem, and this is the same issue as last season, is that the points allowed is poor. This is an example of a team that doesn’t bend but breaks at every opportunity. For whatever reason the Jets do not hold teams to field goals. Its either a TD or a punt. The defense has been downward trending in this area since 2010 and for whatever reason Rex cant seem to solve the problem. Last year it was the big pass play that hurt the Jets, primarily with teams targeting Eric Smith in coverage, but this year its more just falling asleep in games. In the last few games its been late collapses which may have to do with the offenses ineffectiveness as much as the defenses ineffectiveness. Either way it’s a problem that likely will cause a split in the team next season if the Jets do not make dramatic changes on the offensive side of the football.