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Analyzing the Draft: Round 6 and 7
New York Jets Salary Cap Page

Analyzing the Draft: Round 6 and 7

Round 6

To get excited about anyone selected in this round is just not realistic. There is a 2.7% chance of finding one of the top players in the draft in this round and the average score in only a 127 with a median of a 38. The odds of having a top tier player are only 3.3% with an 11.5% chance of simply an above average player. The chance of a contributor is 17.6% , so over 80% of the players selected are pretty much wasted picks. There is actually a better chance, 19.8%, of the pick never even being active for a game than being a contributor.

How did the Jets do by position? Defensive backs average a 124 with a median of 58, so Josh Bush is an average pick for the round. Antoine Bethea was selected in this round and would be the highlight safety by a wide margin. Guards have been slightly better than average with a score of 145, but the median is only a 14, so a good portion barely even see the field. No Pro Bowl guards have been drafted in the round so lets not expect too much from Robert Griffin. Running backs have been way worse than average with an average score of only 66. No player drafted between 1997 and 2007 would grade above the average score of 300. Chester Taylor came closest with a score of 295 and might make it if he holds on 1 more year. Only he and Mike Anderson scored above a 200.

The Jets have been much worse than average this round with a score of only 78 and a median of 23. Their only above average selection was TE Joel Dreesen who only appeared in 14 games for the Jets before heading to Houston. James Reed, technically a 7th rounder but in the 6th round range, scored above a 200 while Drew Coleman was at a 170. Notable misses include Steve Rosga and Marko Cavka, neither of whom ever suited up (and I don't even remember Rosga at all which means he must have been really bad) and Jacob Bender. They did draft Matt Slauson in the 6th round in 2009 and he is likely going to be the best pick they made in the round, so perhaps there is a little more hope.

You cant expect much from the players here. Terrance Ganaway is likely a total throwaway selection and may not even play much this year before being released in year 2. Bush has a chance to be a special teams contributor and perhaps slightly more. If he lasted for 3 years it would be a decent pick for the team. In Griffin's case he probably can have the same upside as a Slauson but the most likely scenario is cut by the start of year 2013.

Round 7

Things get slightly worse in round 7 with the average dropping to a 98 with a median of only a 19. The best picks were Jay Ratliff and Donald Driver, both of whom ranked in the top 10 of their respective drafts. Round 7 made up 1.8% of the top 10 players in the 11 year ranking period so there is benefit to drafting in this round. The odds of finding that player are small. Only 0.6% of the players score above a 1000. 2.8% do score above a 600, which is very good, but that list includes 2 kickers, 1 punter, and 2 QB's, Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel, who turned fluke seasons into big contracts that gave them playing time to inflate their scores. 9% of the players in this area of the draft are going on to be average or better players and 14.8% score a 200 or better. On the negative side 28.6% of selections scored a 0.

Defensive backs land right on the average of a 98 with a median of 25, so the safety selection is as good a selection as any other. Yeremiah Bell would be the highlight Safety drafted. 23.3% score a 0. Wide receivers are a bit below the average with an average of 85 and median of 17. Driver is the clear highlight. 35.7% of WR's scored a 0. I think the disparity between the two positions is pretty much due to DB's being better special teamers than most wideouts.

The Jets have done slightly better here than the norm with an average of 108 and median of 53. The team had 1 big hit in DT Jason Ferguson who scores a 624. The other decent pick was Ryan Young who scored a 235. Their only pick to score a 0 was DT Richard Seals. Since 2007 they did draft Nate Garner, and while he never played a game for the Jets he did start 9 games for Miami and is a decent reserve. WR Scott McKnight and QB Greg McElroy both look to be on track to be 0's for the team.

Based on the Jets track record we can project that Antonio Allen has about a 10% chance of never appearing in a game while Jordan White is closer to 20%. With either player be good? Well the chance is minimal, but if you can get a year or twos worth of decent special teams play and decent practice help you should not really complain much about the selections.

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