Projecting the Jets and Patriots Statistics
Last week the real big differences came from the Jets limiting the plays that the Bills ran by dominating the pass game. Buffalo actually ran the ball well at times, but never came close to running their normal attempts, primarily because Fitzpatrick was so bad. The Bills should have gotten around 60% completions but the Jets held him under 50% and that was the big difference. Lets see how things go with the Patriots
Jets Passing Offense vs Patriots Pass Defense
Comp %: 61.0-62.0%
To me this is very interesting. The Jets are not going to like to pass this much even though that is what the stats would say should happen. The thing is the Patriots should be attacked in that 15-25 yard category which again is not something the Jets are crazy about doing and we have seen them dumb things down even though the opponent says to do it. A really big pass play would be a shock and if it happened it might be a great sign for where the Patriots mentally are at.
Jets Run Offense vs Bills Run Defense
This goes back to the first point. The Jets are currently looking to run the ball but the Patriots are a very good run defense, holding teams to 13.5% below their normal yardage and completely eliminating big plays. There is a good chance that if the Jets go with a run first attack that they will end up being forced to throw and losing the element of surprise later in the game.
Patriots Pass Offense vs Jets Pass Defense
Comp %: 58.1-61.1%
Clearly there is a big variation in the possible yards allowed here. The variation looks to be attributed to just what unit controls the game. If Brady performs at his higher levels, which drives his 53% higher yards than average, he can reach the 300 yard plateau. If the Jets defense dominates, and they are holing teams to 21% below their yardage norms, we are looking at a 250 yard game with the possibility for even less yards, since that total is contingent on the Pats having a good chance at converting a bomb which is still the defenses weakness as they allow nearly 56% more 40 yard plays than the average. Note the large interceptions projected. The Jets are hopefully working hard this week on making sure the DBs are prepared to catch a football that hits them in the hands.
Patriots Run Offense vs Jets Run Defense Att: 26.5-27.4
The Jets got run over the last time these two teams met. The Patriots donít have a dangerous running game as evidenced by the low big play totals, but they are consistent and keep opponents off balance. The Jets just need to make sure that they do not give up first down rushing yardage, something they did well against the Bills.