Projecting the Jets and Bills Statistics

Using the typical averages for the teams that I sometimes publish on the site I thought it might be interesting to see how they work as a prediction for a game if all goes according to plan.

Jets Passing Offense vs Bills Pass Defense

Comp: 20-21
Att: 34-37
Comp %: 56.5-58.2%
Yards: 230-235
TD: 1.6
Int: 1.5-1.8
Sack:2.0-2.5
20+:3.3-3.5
40+:0.16-0.23

Obviously the fractional results cant occur but it gives an idea of what to expect. If the Jets can get the extra 20 yard play, only throw 1 interception, and throw a second TD then they have a good chance to win. That probably accounts for a 10 point swing. However, it seems pretty unlikely that Sanchez would be expected to be a difference maker in this game.

Jets Run Offense vs Bills Run Defense

Att: 22-25
Yds: 92-109
YPA: 4.2-4.3
TD: 0.8-1
20+: 0.85-1.1
40+: 0

This looks like a pretty firm prediction. The disparity in run yards come from attempts. Most teams don’t run as much as normal on the Bills because the games have turned into shootouts. The Jets like to try to run so they may force it no matter what. The Jets have a chance to break 1 big run, which is not typical for them.

Bills Pass Offense vs Jets Pass Defense

Comp: 18-18.5
Att: 29
Comp %: 60.9-62.8%
Yards: 196
TD: 0.85-0.9
Int: 1.6-1.7
Sack: 1.2-1.4
20+: 2.0-2.1
40+:0.95-1.05
There looks to be very little variation in how the Bills passing game projects. The Jets pass defense is very good and the Bills have been a “take what they give” team all year in this phase of the game. If they are over 30 attempts it’s a really good sign for NY. The two areas where the Jets can turn the game are intercepts and limiting the big play. If the Jets get the second interception that puts the Bills in much worse than average territory. The 40 yard bomb is a big part of the Bills offense and the Jets are not good covering those routes. If they eliminate it you are looking at a 150 yard passing game for the Bills, a dramatic departure from their averages.

Bills Run Offense vs Jets Run Defense Att: 31-32
Yds: 149-155
YPA: 4.8-4.9
TD: 2.0-2.1
20+: 1.15
40+: 0.28-0.38

And here is the game in a nutshell. Unless the Jets drastically improve in their defensive efficiency against the run, specifically in allowing touchdowns, it will be a tough game for the Jets to win. The Bills offense is not all that different from what the Jets offense was the past few years. Run the ball a lot and take a few chances in the air when the situation presents itself. The Jets should know it pretty well, its just a question as to whether or not they can do anything to stop it.