Final NFL Rushing Efficiency
Today we will tackle the running offense. Again these stats are from NFL.com and tell us what percent better or worse a team performed in each category adjusted for their schedule. The second table adjusts the numbers based on a team facing an easier or more difficult than average schedule. The average run defense allowed 4.29 YPA, 0.029 touchdowns per attempt, 0.027 plays of 20 or more per attempt, and 0.005 plays of 40 or more yards per attempt.
How did the Jets fare? Like the passing offense pretty poorly. In YPA the Jets ranked 29th with -11.59% below the expected number. For a team that considers the run game its strong point it was an eye opener about problems both on the line and in the backfield. The Panthers ranked first which is likely in part to the QB being a tremendous runner the same reason the Eagles were second. The Bills placed third and the Vikings fourth. It would have been interesting to see how those teams did had their star runners not gotten injured. The Jets ranked 14th in touchdowns, and like the passing game, is what saved them from total disaster. The offense simply does not gain yards consistently but when they do they were scoring 7 instead of 3 like they did in 2009 and 2010. The really strange team here was the Giants who were far and away the worst running team in the NFL, yet they scored 47.4% more tds than expected per attempt. Panthers/Eagles were one and two again. Big plays were a nightmare finishing 29th in the 20+ category and tied for dead last with 5 others in the 40+ category. The Ravens and Raiders were ridiculous big play teams this year.
I think this is a real indication that the offense needs to upgrade the talent level. They need more explosiveness in the backfield and they need better blocking up front. This was the first time in the last 4 years that they finished below average in the YPA category and it was the worst showing since 2006. Right now they are down at those 2006 levels when they were trotting out players like Kevan Barlow at RB and Anthony Clement was playing RT. That’s not great company for Shonn Greene and Wayne Hunter to be associated with.
The Jets stats did not change much when adjusted for difficulty of schedule compared to the rest of the league as they played a relatively average schedule.
Rushing Efficiency
| Team | YPA | TDA | 20/A | 40A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 23.91% | 95.99% | 83.83% | 12.48% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22.43% | 57.29% | 105.52% | 40.78% |
| Buffalo Bills | 16.89% | 7.94% | 72.26% | 86.90% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 15.72% | 38.24% | 33.64% | 69.14% |
| New Orleans Saints | 11.56% | 12.34% | 8.72% | -100.00% |
| Denver Broncos | 10.93% | -29.24% | 23.30% | -67.12% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.95% | 12.90% | -6.41% | 97.58% |
| Oakland Raiders | 6.45% | 39.79% | 71.74% | 167.93% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5.28% | 28.84% | 17.11% | 184.10% |
| Houston Texans | 4.84% | 9.62% | -15.30% | 42.58% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.64% | -62.27% | -4.04% | 24.81% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.83% | 20.16% | -21.60% | 3.17% |
| San Diego Chargers | -0.35% | 31.34% | 7.29% | 4.73% |
| St. Louis Rams | -0.89% | -33.46% | -24.22% | 35.56% |
| Chicago Bears | -1.28% | -23.23% | 29.06% | 52.70% |
| Detroit Lions | -1.48% | -9.45% | -23.81% | 84.23% |
| Indianapolis Colts | -2.36% | -28.42% | -33.91% | 6.81% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.66% | -8.06% | -22.74% | -51.99% |
| Miami Dolphins | -3.51% | -24.46% | -21.80% | -52.84% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4.96% | -4.77% | 23.68% | 43.20% |
| Washington Redskins | -5.26% | -32.95% | 5.58% | -100.00% |
| New England Patriots | -5.80% | 41.35% | -59.49% | -100.00% |
| Seattle Seahawks | -5.81% | 25.86% | -22.27% | 26.58% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -5.88% | -13.74% | -45.42% | -34.74% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -6.59% | -38.49% | -28.78% | 39.98% |
| Atlanta Falcons | -9.98% | -3.96% | -25.61% | 39.21% |
| Tennessee Titans | -10.61% | -32.42% | 40.86% | -44.03% |
| Cleveland Browns | -10.63% | -67.16% | -31.54% | -47.19% |
| New York Jets | -11.59% | 9.10% | -41.75% | -100.00% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -11.84% | -63.93% | -13.64% | -100.00% |
| Green Bay Packers | -12.47% | 3.29% | -38.19% | -29.31% |
| New York Giants | -19.91% | 47.39% | -62.36% | -100.00% |
Rushing Efficiency, Adjusted
| Team | YPA | TDA | 20/A | 40A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 26.22% | 58.92% | 125.78% | 46.52% |
| Carolina Panthers | 22.20% | 92.20% | 75.66% | -6.82% |
| Buffalo Bills | 19.00% | 8.95% | 79.20% | 105.19% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.59% | 37.04% | 16.62% | 37.80% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 11.46% | 20.53% | 11.89% | 127.95% |
| Denver Broncos | 9.74% | -28.36% | 13.77% | -77.98% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.09% | 40.52% | 27.93% | 207.79% |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.55% | -2.72% | -1.44% | -144.16% |
| Oakland Raiders | 7.39% | 54.28% | 74.99% | 204.17% |
| Houston Texans | 5.24% | 4.91% | -18.94% | 40.31% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.35% | 30.78% | -6.24% | 3.98% |
| St. Louis Rams | 3.34% | -23.02% | -7.49% | 63.76% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.16% | -75.34% | -7.64% | 7.56% |
| San Diego Chargers | -0.26% | 34.05% | 4.82% | 17.55% |
| Indianapolis Colts | -1.88% | -30.29% | -36.14% | 9.24% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -2.58% | -2.46% | -34.51% | -1.78% |
| Detroit Lions | -2.60% | -6.65% | -32.56% | 93.19% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.48% | -6.56% | -19.28% | -71.80% |
| Seattle Seahawks | -3.59% | 32.41% | -7.75% | 20.34% |
| Washington Redskins | -4.44% | -36.80% | 18.28% | -100.99% |
| New England Patriots | -5.36% | 40.12% | -63.39% | -86.06% |
| Chicago Bears | -5.52% | -22.70% | 16.29% | 38.37% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -5.53% | -7.55% | 27.89% | 31.57% |
| Miami Dolphins | -5.77% | -32.56% | -32.39% | -42.83% |
| Cleveland Browns | -6.75% | -69.36% | -22.39% | -38.00% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -7.03% | -42.68% | -34.65% | 52.75% |
| Tennessee Titans | -10.25% | -42.03% | 43.40% | -38.61% |
| New York Jets | -12.20% | 8.26% | -41.77% | -91.51% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -14.52% | -63.02% | -27.61% | -103.55% |
| Atlanta Falcons | -14.72% | -15.99% | -45.97% | 12.97% |
| Green Bay Packers | -17.41% | 0.89% | -58.99% | -71.86% |
| New York Giants | -20.86% | 49.69% | -57.69% | -109.82% |
It seems that the Jets RBs were stuffed many times, and that's on the Oline. I don't think better RBs would help that much if the Oline doesn't vastly improve.
I'm not saying the Jets RBs are good, just that the Oline problems are more in need of improvement.
Its not like Thomas Jones was so great 2 years ago, the Oline was a lot better.
With Bill Callahan leaving, the Jets now have other problems. There may be a huge coaching turnover.
John Madden used to talk about that all the time. I have never forgotten Eric Dickerson who used to run 16 yards at a clip for the Los Angeles Rams (Yes, they were in LA then). He looked like he was jogging in the park. I could have run 10 yards at a clip for that team. They had one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Then, Eric did not feel the Rams were paying him enough money and he demanded to be traded. The team traded him to the Colts who had a horrible offensive line. Dickerson was constantly getting nailed in the backfield. At one point, Dickerson refused to come to practice until the O line got their act together; another prima donna, but you get the idea.
As for Bill Callahan leaving, I'd love to know what happened there. He took the same job; just one with a star for a logo. I understand Schottenheimer interviewing for a HEAD coaching position with the Jaguars; same for Mike Pettine with the Dolphins, and Joey Clinkscale for a General Manager position with the Rams. But, Callahan is going to be the Offensive Line Coach for Dallas; the very same position he had with the Jets.
Unless the Jets front office suggested Callahan start looking elsewhere (as could have been the case given the problems with the O line this year), then I say "Good riddance" for jumping ship when things are tough.
2. How good is Sparano as an OC? What experience does he have? Why him?
3. What about Todd Haley?
4. What will happen with Tom Moore?
5. Florio is crawling out from his hole and suggetsing the Jets axe Ryan.
Todd Haley would be the ideal candidate to rebuild the passing game. Again, he is someone well respected with regard to a passing attack, and basically sucks at everything else.
I'm not up on Tom Moore, so I don't know what to say about him.
As for Rex Ryan getting the axe? I am a big fan of his, just like I was of his daddy, Buddy. Having said that, I also feel (like his daddy) that his ignoring the offense (presumably because he is clueless on that side of the house) detracts from his ability as a head coach. Like Sparano, I feel Rex would be a far better coordinator than a head coach; just on the defensive side instead.
I feel as though we got set up with Ryan. After Bill Parcells stepped down from the head coaching position, we had Al Groh followed by Herman Edwards followed by Eric Mangini; none of whom did much to excite the fan base. The Jets used to stall out early in the playoffs.
Then came Rex Ryan with all of his bravado, and he came during a time when the salary cap was temporarily not in play, and Woody Johnson demonstrated time and again that money was no object when building a Super Bowl team.
The Jets advanced as far as two back to back AFC Championship Games. It sure seemed like we had a sure thing going. But, coupled with an abbreviated preseason, the salary cap was suddenly back in play, and it didn't matter that Mr. Johnson was willing to spend whatever it took. The Jets were forced to let some really good players go, and we know the end result of that.
Now, Rex Ryan is eating humble pie, praising other coaches, and talking about what a bad coach he is. He has lost the team, and I can well imagine there is plenty of talk about replacing him. I don't honestly know who would effectively replace him, but yeah; when a team falls way short of where everyone expected it to be, "change" will always be on everyone's mind - particularly during the offseason when there are no games to watch and we are desperate for any kind of football news we can get.
As for Sparano, my take is that his hire is an organization decision to give up on Sanchez and now just try to get whatever they can from him as a complete caretaker. He was around a 48/52 run pass split guy in Miami which is what you do when you think you have no QB. Id imagine its also message that Rex wants a guy with head coaching experience to run the offense so they dont have some of the situational mistakes that seemed to go on with Schotty. I never saw Sparano as good in that regard, but he does have experience and this also gives the Jets another branch in the Parcells tree and I think the front office like the idea of having former coaches willing to hang around practice for a day or two if they like.
This Schotty move was known for weeks. Clearly as early as the reports of Callahan not staying here. He must have been told he was not under consideration for a new job if they made the switch and Im sure he heard rumors about Sparano (an O-line guy) coming in. Thats a guy brought in to run the running game and fix a problem. Callahan may not have even been wanted back.
I hope they dont consider canning Rex. Guy made two championship games in his first two years. Is he a great regular season coach yet? No, but how do you give up on him. People begged to bring in Bill Cowher who did nothing but lose in the playoffs for over a decade, then he wins one and he becomes the greatest of all time? Please. Ryan has some kinks to iron out and I think a portion of the team tuned him out, but he will learn that the act grows old over time when the players hear it every week. It was novel to them in 2009. He also had his guys there to enforce it. His guys are pretty much gone now. He has to forge new relationships to get his players to rachet it up for him. He cant do it through Revis and Cromartie (who clearly loves playing for him and all the bravado) because nobody up front goes wild for a CB. He needs a LB or D-linemen to be his guy in the locker room on defense and the QB to pick it up on offense. If I was Rex I would spend a good chunk of my offseason getting to know Muhammad Wilkerson and palling around with Mark Sanchez. He needs these to be his guys and to be vocal for him in that locker room.
My friend rejected my idea of a 7th round pick for Jamaal Charles and Eric berry and Tamba Hali.
I upped the offer to include a bag of doughnuts, but still no go.