NFL Efficiency- Week 4
The Efficiency Rankings are back again. Iím going to try to post these every week or every other week from this point forward depending on time. These rankings are essentially a power ranking for each NFL team, something I have kept for myself since 2002 or so. The percentages represent how much above or below the football team has performed in terms of scoring relative to their unique schedule. Though I will always refer to scoring efficiency as a barometer for offense it does include special teams and defensive scores. Likewise Defense is not adjusted for an offense throwing a pick 6, so the two balance out in the overall Total Efficiency score, but itís possible that a team might be a big better on defense than the numbers indicate.
As an example as to how this works the Jets opponents this year have averaged 22.75 ppg against opponents other than the Jets. The Jets are allowing 23.75 ppg, or about 4.4% more points to a team than they average. That would mean that, on average, playing the Jets should amount to a team scoring about an extra point than you would normally expect.
Despite the Jets woes they actually rank 13th overall with a 12.79% TE ranking. They have been killed based on the schedule where they have faced 3 top 10 early season teams in Baltimore (1) , Dallas (7) and Oakland(10). It wont get easier as they face the number 4 ranked Patriots this week. The Jets have a few special teams and defensive scores, but offense has not been a problem and is actually above average at scoring points. Other than against the Raiders the Jets have been able to put up more points that the average for their opponent. If the Jets could stop with the turnovers and the early game drives where the defense looks asleep they could be fine.
Despite the crazy scoring numbers the Patriots, and Lions rank 4, and 5 in scoring primarily because they have all played teams that are giving up big points in most games. As is par for the course the defensive rankings swing wildly year to year. Teams like the Titans, Redskins, and Bengals rank in the top 5. Pittsburgh and the Ravens are the two carryovers on defense and its probably related to having some exceptional personnel since they have done above average in year over year defensive rankings. The biggest stunner is Jacksonville at number 6, but they have held teams low in points except for the Jets. This may also be a byproduct of how bad teams think they are and decide to take less chances in games than usual.
Biggest surprises of the season may be Tennessee and Buffalo, both ranking early in the top 10, the Bills because of scoring and the Titans because of defense. The worst surprises have to be the Chiefs, who rank number 31 and score 50% below average. The Eagles and Falcons at 23 and 26 have to also be tremendous disappointments. Both have the defense to blame. The toughest divisions look to be be the NFC North and the AFC East and its not even close. The AFC East has 3 teams in the top 13 while the North has 2 in the top 5 and 3 in the top 15. The worst are, no surprise, the two West divisions. Oakland ranks number 10 and then the next closest is Denv er at 20. The NFC West is even worsedue to having 2 of the worst 4 teams in the NFL in the Rams and Seahawks. These rankings will all swing wildly over the next few weeks, but its unlikely that the divisions will greatly improve.
NFL Efficiencty Rankings, Thru Week 4
|Rank||Team||Scoring Efficiency||Defensive Efficiency||Total Efficiency|
|2||New Orleans Saints||92.42%||6.52%||85.90%|
|3||Green Bay Packers||70.11%||-1.02%||71.14%|
|4||New England Patriots||60.08%||-3.92%||64.00%|
|11||San Francisco 49'ers||1.08%||-14.45%||15.52%|
|13||New York Jets||17.19%||4.40%||12.79%|
|16||New York Giants||18.15%||12.50%||5.65%|
|17||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-16.28%||-19.79%||3.51%|
|22||San Diego Chargers||-18.02%||4.08%||-22.10%|
|29||St. Louis Rams||-47.33%||16.10%||-63.42%|
|31||Kansas City Chiefs||-50.00%||21.94%||-71.94%|