NFL Efficiency- Week 15
I thought I would have a little fun this week and see what teams are peaking in time for the playoffs. I took the last 9 weeks of numbers and plotted them by playoff scenario. First up are the races for the number 1 seeds.
Surprisingly none of the teams are really faring that well right now. Houston is, no surprise, the team that has fallen the most. They are struggling to win games and some of their early wins have started to look worse. They look to be a ripe for a first round loss….Green Bay and San Francisco have both very consistent this year. Packers have been down the last two weeks, but that could be due to boredom, which happened to the Arizona Cardinals the year they went to the Super Bowl. New Orleans is right there with these teams, but they are a notch below. They would have to play better than their norms and see the other teams have bad games to pull off the upsets.
The NFC East and AFC West are the two divisions still up for grabs.
Dallas has been the best team all year and should be capable of holding off the surging Eagles. The Giants have never been a good team this year and its amazing that they are in the position they are in. San Diego is the one team that is surging in the league. If they make it as the 4 seed it becomes a really dangerous game for the Steelers. Oakland might have 1 game left in them while the Broncos will likely slide. Question is whether that is enough for the Chargers or not. Chiefs having 6 wins just defies logic.
Finally we have the wildcard races:
The NFC is almost set even though I included all the teams technically alive. The team to feel bad for is Seattle. They are on such an upswing that they could do some damage in the playoffs and pull off another upset. Pete Carroll has done a great job there. The injuries to Chicago wrecked there season as shown in the graph. Atlanta has been steadily on a slow climb while Detroit has had a down few weeks but is going to make it in.
Over in the AFC everyone has nosedived except the Chargers who have almost no chance at a wildcard. The Bengals have basically been moving negatively for the last 5 or 6 weeks. The Titans look to have simply regressed back to the mean after a two or three week spurt. All signs would point to the Jets last two weeks being an aberration and they may just be settling back down around 15% where they have been most of the season. They should make it as the 6 seed.
NFL Efficiency Rankings, Thru Week 15
|Rank||Change||Team||Off Eff||Def Eff||Total Eff|
|2||+2||San Francisco 49ers||10.04%||-37.94%||47.98%|
|3||-2||Green Bay Packers||40.07%||-4.60%||44.67%|
|4||+2||New England Patriots||39.51%||-1.58%||41.09%|
|5||-||New Orleans Saints||41.99%||2.63%||39.36%|
|11||-2||New York Jets||12.11%||-0.82%||12.94%|
|12||+2||San Diego Chargers||13.65%||1.93%||11.72%|
|18||-1||New York Giants||13.66%||15.75%||-2.08%|
|29||-1||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-25.02%||8.54%||-33.57%|
|30||-||Kansas City Chiefs||-42.18%||-4.80%||-37.38%|
|31||-||St. Louis Rams||-43.57%||8.18%||-51.74%|