NFL Efficiency- Week 14
Hard to believe but there are only 3 weeks left in the NFL Season. If the season ended today 9 of the top 10 ranked teams would be in the playoffs (Chicago at number 10 is now on the outside looking in). The other teams that would make it are Atlanta (12), New York Giants (17), and Denver (19). Dallas is actually the highest ranking team from the NFC East (11) while San Diego (14) is the highest in the AFC West. Dallas still has a chance if they stopped shooting themselves in the foot while the Chargers are a longshot. San Diego has risen 7 spots in the last three weeks as they are on their usual December charge, but its probably too much too late.
The Raiders are fading fast. They spent a majority of the season right at number 10, but the injury to Darren McFadden and Jason Campbell really destroyed their season. They are down to number 20 and are going to really look back on the Carson Palmer move as a tremendous waste of resources unless something turns around. The coach could get fired for it since he is the one who pushed for the trade so much. The fall of the Bills has been something to behold. Normally there is a trend that supposed fluke teams show their true colors after the halfway point, but those teams usually hover between 9 and 13, like the Bengals and Raiders this year. The Bills at one point ranked number 1 overall and were in the top 5 for a large portion of the year. Those teams rarely fall. They are now 23. The last time there has been a fall this epic was the 2008 Jets who were number 1 ¾ of the way thru the year and ended at 14. Still that was a team that trended for most of the season around 10, got hot and climbed, and then fell back to where they started. The Bills have just collapsed. Its unheard of. That coach could go just like Eric Mangini did in 2008.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
Tampa was overrated last year based on the inflated record but only finished the year ranked 17th with a total efficiency of -0.22%. They now rank 28th at a -31.59%. Its about as bad as they were in 2009 when Raheem Morris first got the job. When you have a QB you drafted in 2009 and these are the stats you are not long for the NFL….The Rams are another one. Under Steve Spagnuolo the number are -80.16, -27.09, and -61.33. You cant allow that to go on any longer….Jim Caldwell could have some issues. His 2009 team maintained the same number as the 2008 team (around a +26), but fell last year to 12.81 and is now at -71.83 without Peyton Manning. One player means a lot, but should not mean that much. Depends on how much ownership likes him I guess…Mike Shanahan has done nothing in Washington. They were a -12.10 and -23.51 before he got there. They have been -17.66 and -20.76 after he got there. No improvement at all. The offense hasn’t even improved. Sometimes the old successful coach just doenst get it done in the new situation and that looks to be the case here….
Andy Reid could be in a situation where the players are tuning him out now. His last 4 years are 35.87, 25.44, 17.7, and -0.76. So its been a pretty steady trend downward, and this will most likely be his first non top 10 finish in the last 4 years...Norv Turner is difficult to rate because his teams find ways to lose, especially early in the year though statistically they are a machine. They never get blown out and then late in years dominate to rise up the charts. In the last 4 seasons they have been 27.69, 28.54, 27.52, and 4.05. By seasons end don’t be surprised if that 4.05 becomes a 15 or so and they finish in the top 10 for the 4th straight season. Of course it will also be the 2nd year of no playoffs despite the numbers. It’s the same problem Jason Garrett has this year in Dallas. Good numbers but they don’t translate into results. Its rare that occurs but it probably is time to make a move.
The fired coaches tenures were: Tony Sparano: 4.27, 4.04, -9.55, 2.05 and Todd Haley: -40.89, 2.67, -45.92. In the last 4 years Jack Del Rio was: -16.37, -29.27, -18.81, and -19.52 when he left. Clearly the Dolphins expected more than average play, which is what they got with Sparano. Considering the talent level on that team is so poor he probably did a decent job and should get another chance in the NFL. Haley was clearly awful, just like Morris and Spags. Del Rio should have been gone last season when he couldn’t turn the ship around. Again its not a talented team, but 4 years of consistently bottom 1/3 of the NFL is reason to get fired.
NFL Efficiency Rankings, Thru Week 14
|Rank||Change||Team||Off Eff||Def Eff||Total Eff|
|1||+1||Green Bay Packers||47.73%||-6.27%||54.00%|
|4||+1||San Francisco 49ers||7.56%||-33.39%||40.96%|
|5||+1||New Orleans Saints||41.48%||2.42%||39.06%|
|6||-3||New England Patriots||36.91%||-1.67%||38.58%|
|9||+2||New York Jets||14.94%||-6.60%||21.54%|
|14||+4||San Diego Chargers||10.64%||6.60%||4.05%|
|17||-1||New York Giants||17.89%||17.51%||0.38%|
|28||-5||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-24.37%||7.22%||-31.59%|
|30||-||Kansas City Chiefs||-43.60%||2.32%||-45.92%|
|31||-||St. Louis Rams||-45.18%||11.10%||-56.28%|